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Entry number |
38 |
| Name |
Dr. Robin Hanson
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| Email Address |
rhanson@gmu.edu
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| Age Range |
No age selected
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| Sex | No sex selected
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| Platform & language | Mozilla/4.7 [en] (WinNT; I)
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| IP Address | 192.168.0.102
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| Date | Sat Sep 9 17:31:48 EDT 2000
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| Comments | You have a lot of detail on your site, but little in the way of theory to connect the details to the big policy issues. The main issue I can accept as valid is pollution externalities, and the main remedy that makes sense is a direct pollution tax. But even there you haven't paid much attention to the most important issues. The fact that we may be running out of fuels is just a fact of life, like the rain, and not something that it is useful to respond to with uses taxes, subsidies, etc. If you think people are systematically mistaken about what will happen, you might consider creating an institution like: longgrainfutures.html on hanson.gmu.edu. Entry and costs are similarly something that it is a mistake to interfere with. Investors have had long experience in considering such issues, and probably get it pretty near right. Research costs might be more of a concern, but not especially because this is energy - all research is a concern. I might accept some general approach to subsidizing all types of research, but it is inappropriate to pick winners and losers. The issue where there seems more grounds for intervention is pollution externalities, which one might respond to with a pollution tax. But the best policy is just to tax the pollution that causes harm, and leave it up to others to respond to this tax with this or that new or old technology. It is again a mistake to try to pick winners and losers. The big question regarding a tax is how large it should be. Obviously we should not be subsidizing things that cause external harms, and so it is clear we should eliminate subsidies. But beyond that, the tax should be as large as the harm imposed on others. But that just makes the question: how large is the harm@ Regarding global warming a crucial point is that the harm will happen far in the future, and using standard interest rates that does not count as much harm. Here are some relevant economics articles, from www.jstor.org, on global warming policy: (1) "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis", by Robert Mendelsohn, William D. Nordhaus, Daigee Shaw; The American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 4. (Sep., 1994), pp. 753-771. (2)" Scientific Basis for the Greenhouse Effect (in Policy Forum)" by William R. Cline; The Economic Journal, Vol. 101, No. 407. (Jul., 1991), pp. 904-919. (3) "Global Warming Policy: A Public Finance Perspective (in Symposia: Global Climate Change)", by James M. Poterba; The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 7, No. 4. (Autumn, 1993), pp. 47-63. (4) "The Role of Carbon Taxes in Adjusting to Global Warming (in Policy Forum)", by David Pearce; The Economic Journal, Vol. 101, No. 407. (Jul., 1991), pp. 938-948. (5) "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies", by William D. Nordhaus, Zili Yang; The American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 4. (Sep., 1996), pp. 741-765. (6)"Some Economics of Global Warming", by Thomas C. Schelling; The American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 1. (Mar., 1992), pp. 1-14. (7) "The Impact of Global Warming of Agriculture: Comment", by William R. Cline; The American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 5. (Dec., 1996), pp. 1309-1311. (8) "Reflections on the Economics of Climate Change (in Symposia: Global Climate Change)", by William D. Nordhaus; The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 7, No. 4. (Autumn, 1993), pp. 11-25. (9) "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Reply", by Robert Mendelsohn, William Nordhaus; The American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 5. (Dec., 1996), pp. 1312-1315. (10) "Economic Aspects of Global Warming: Editorial Note (in Policy Forum)", by David Greenaway; The Economic Journal, Vol. 101, No. 407. (Jul., 1991), pp. 902-903. --------------------------------------- I'd be happy to talk with you on this more, in person or by phone. Robin Hanson, rhanson@gmu.edu, hanson.gmu.edu, Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University, MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444, 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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