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[ v o l c a n o e s   :   p r e d i c t i o n ]


Scientists measure the strength of earthquakes and volcanoes using machines known as seismographs, which record the trembling of the ground. This instrument is simply a pen that traces a straight line on a turning drum. When the earth moves, the pen is jolted out of its normal course, and traces a wiggle on the paper beneath it. A very sensitive seismograph can magnify the tiniest tremors one million times. The stronger the earth’s movement, the larger the wiggle is drawn.

A huge number of lives would be saved if warnings came early enough to escape a volcano’s deadly effects. Awareness has rapidly increased in the last twenty years largely because of modern technology, satellites, computers, and news networks. Instruments have been created to predict eruptions. Seismographs can detect increasing tremors that vibrate the ground when magma rises up inside a volcano. This magma build-up can also be detected by instruments measuring magnetism. Magma also makes the volcano begin to bulge, a change that can be detected by tiltmeters. The heating up of mountain springs and lakes is another indication of danger.

Volcanoes are currently indexed for their risk level, an action encouraged by the United Nations, which declared 1990-2000 to be the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). One of the themes is the Decade of the Volcano, which has resulted in greater volcano behavior research and focus on why and how often eruptions occur. Fifteen volcanoes were targeted for intense research, and include some of the most famous and deadliest in the world: Mauna Loa and Mount Rainier (USA), Colima (Mexico), Santa Maria (Guatemala), Galeras (Colombia), Nyiragongo (Zaire), Mounts Etna and Vesuvius (Italy), Ulawun (Papua, New Guinea), Taal (Philippines), Merapi (Indonesia), Mounts Sakurajima and Unzen (Japan), Thera [Santorini] (Greece), and Teide (Canary Islands, Spain).

Scientists are currently studying these earthly giants in their inactive years to try and find its "normal" behavior. Once the norm is established, any strange or unusual behavior can alert people to potentially dangerous eruptions. However, eruption times cannot be precisely predicted because a particular hint of awakening may lead to different events at different times. Unusual volcanic activity does not necessarily mean an eruption will occur, while a quiet volcano can erupt with no warning.

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