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 La
Nina Summit
Purpose
Considerable attention has been focused on the El Niņo event of 1997-98. Physical and
social scientists have had an opportunity to monitor the physical processes associated
with this event as well as to observe the worldwide societal impacts associated with El
Niņo. During this summer, several organizations will be scrutinizing this El Niņo in the
hope of generating improved understanding and new ideas about the phenomenon and its
impacts.
It was the objective of the La Niņa Summit to identify what is known with some degree of
reliability about the cold event (La Niņa) and about its societal and environmental
impacts. La Niņa has been less well studied than the warm event (El Niņo), yet it too is
associated with climate anomalies around the globe. Identification of the current state of
understanding of La Niņa and its societal and environmental impacts, as well as giving
more attention to this aspect of the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation cycle, was the focus of
this workshop. Fifteen countries were represented.
A workshop report has been prepared for distribution. For more information about the
workshop or the report, please contact D. Jan Stewart or Michael Glantz.
This "Usable Science" activity was the first of several activities currently
being developed for the new UNU Program "El Niņo Impacts and Response Strategies for
Pacific Rim Countries." Dr. Michael Glantz, Senior Scientist at the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is the UNU Project Coordinator, and Dr. Mikiyasu
Nakayama, Professor at Utsunomiya University (Japan) is the Deputy Coordinator for this
emerging activity. This project enables UNU's environmental program to become an important
contributor to an improved understanding of a natural hazard that has spawned floods,
frosts, fires, and changes in typhoon tracks.
Schedule
Tuesday, 14 July 1998
Informal Reception at the Golden Buff, 7-9 p.m.
Wednesday, 15 July 1998
*Introduction*
8:30-9:00a Welcome to meeting. Why this workshop? Why now?
9:00-10:00 What's happening in the tropical Pacific Ocean now.
10:00-10:30 Break
*Definition*
10:30-11:30 La Niņa, cold event, ENSO cold event -- or "What La Niņa Is"
11:30-12:00 What constitutes "normal"?
12:00-1:30p Lunch (1:00-1:30, voluntary tour of NCAR)
*Teleconnections*
1:30-2:00 La Niņa's global teleconnections
2:00-3:30 Expected regional teleconnection impacts of La Niņa (2:00-2:45, Tropics)
(2:45-3:30, Southern Hemisphere)
3:00-3:30 Break
3:30-4:15 Expected regional teleconnection impacts of La Niņa (Northern Hemisphere)
*Climate Change*
4:15-5:00 El Niņo, La Niņa, "Normal" and climate change
Thursday, 16 July 1998
*Symmetry*
8:45-9:30 Is there symmetry between El Niņo and La Niņa phenomena? (The physical side)
9:30-10:15 Is there symmetry between El Niņo and La Niņa impacts? (The meteorological,
societal, and ecological sides)
10:15-10:45 Break
*Attribution*
10:45-11:30 How can we tell ENSO impacts of La Niņa (or El Niņo) from other factors'
impacts?
*Media*
11:30-12:15p A Panel: Media coverage of La Niņa/El Niņo
12:15-1:30 Lunch
*Forecasting*
1:30-2:15 How well did we forecast this 1997-98 El Niņo?
2:15-3:00 How well did we forecast the onset of this La Niņa?
3:00-3:30 Break
3:30-4:00 Are the problems of forecasting La Niņa the same as those for forecasting El
Niņo?
*Monitoring*
4:00-4:45 Is what is needed for El Niņo monitoring sufficient for monitoring La Niņa?
Friday, 17 July 1998
Working Groups: Parallel sessions
8:30-10:00 (a) What does society want from the ENSO scientific community?
(b) What can the ENSO scientific community provide to society?
9:45-10:45 Recommendations?
10:00-10:30 Break
10:30-11:30 Plenary (for Working Group statements)
11:30-12:00p Recommendations: Where do we go from here?
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