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 El Niņo and the Indian Monsoons
More than half of India's gross national product comes from agriculture, the successes of which depends on their regular rainfall or the monsoons. If the monsoons do not come as expected to, they can cause extreme floods in some areas while causing drought in other areas. Even after many decades of hard intensive study, no definite method has been discovered of predicting the Indian Monsoons. However, many of the years that the monsoons have caused floods and droughts, have also been El Niņo years.
During the 1982-83 El Niņo, more than 33% of India was affected by drought. The monsoon began late, then brought 150-200 mm of rain in one day, and then finished early. These droughts and deluges disrupted agricultural operations, and caused a 3.7% decline in their agricultural production. This doesn't show the disastrous effects in particular regions, where agricultural production fell as much as 50%. However, total grain production was relatively unaffected and fell by only 5 million tons. This compares favorably with the drought of 1978-79, which was a non-El Niņo year, which also caused a water deficit over nearly half the country, and let to a drop in grain production of more than 22 million tons. The explanation for this lies in deliberate efforts to adapt grain production to climatic conditions. Indian grain production occurs in two main season: (1) kharif [monsoon] season - hot and production levels depend largely on the monsoon rainfall and (2) rabi [winter] season - cooler and crops grown require less moisture. When the monsoon rains are weak, and production falls, efforts are made to increase winter season production. Over the past 25 years, winter season production has been increasing and the difference in production between the two seasons has narrowed. This policy has helped to cushion food production from the effects of weak monsoons. In 1982-83, the kharif crops were reduced by about 10 million tons, but winter production increased by about 5 million tons, partly compensating for the loss. To further enhance food security, the Indian government has, since the 1970s, revived the ancient custom of holding reserved stocks of grain to distribute during times of food shortage. In 1982-83, these stocks amounted to 18 million tons, and the government was able to intervene to supply food for the needy at reasonable prices. Without government intervention, the poor would have found it difficult to afford many basic foods. Next: Floods In Peru
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