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Instruction Execution I-Unit Pipelining I-Unit Bypassing Die Size Technology Prediction
Technology Prediction - Predicting the Past Technology Prediction - Extrapolating into the future Technology Prediction - 90% Certainty Technology Prediction - 99.9% Certainty Technology Prediction - Why is it so Important? Here are all of the images you have just seen, in a slideshow

Technology Prediction

90% Certainty

The lines that form a cone higher and lower than the center future prediction line is what you hope the technology stays within. The engineers will design the product to the lower cone line. If on the day you want to ship, the technology is not at least as good as that lower line, then you will have designed something that you cannot build. If this occurs, you will need to wait until the technology improves to the level of the design. If this period is too long, the company can (probably will) go out of business.
A similar situation occurs when the technology improves too much. The engineers will have designed a product that performs lower than what the technology permits. It is likely that some of the competitors will have designed a better product leaving you in the dust. Out of Business!!!
Also, the size of the cone determines the chances of going out of business. In this example, the cone is small around the prediction line. Therefore the chances of staying in business are smaller than a larger cones', or in this case 90%.
Confusing? It gets worse!!
Graph of Past Technology, Future Prediction, and Prediction cone for 90% Certainty. Click to Enlarge.
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