Hypothesis Testing Method
| Step 1: Problem
identification |
Usually a problem that needs solving is
causing difficulty or pain. One of the biggest problems we've
recognized in recent years is AIDS. Once the problem is
recognized, then an approach is designed. In other words, we
might study it statistically, gathering data from hypotheses on
how certain treatments affect victims, based on theories of how
the virus works. At any rate, the problem is identified in this
step and the approach is designed.
The positivists steered away from considering the study of
emotional things as "non-scientific." These were too subjective
for them. However, in recent times, social scientists have used
sophisticated methods involving observation and statistical
analysis to try to predict public opinion and the like.
One such use is in criminal science. The article "A Mountain
Manhunt" in the July 27, 1998 article of Newsweek tells of a
model or hypothesis of a fugitive. Cases put together to
prosecute murders use courts to test the hypothesis against the
evidence (observations) made. Some highly publicized wrongful
convictions lately indicate that the science is not perfect.
The article "The wrong men on death row" in the November 9,
1998 issue of U.S. News and World presents a whole litany of
false confessions, discarded evidence, and wrongful
convictions. The article tells how wrongful convictions happen.
In March 15, 1999 U.S. News and World ran a follow-up article
called "Fixing a broken frame" about Rolando Cruz who was
wrongly imprisoned. The article raises questions about DNA
testing. It is always difficult to prove murders since the
prime witness is usually not still living. Criminal science and
notions of right/wrong are definitely distinctive of human
thinking (vs. animals). Our thinking is based on civil rules.
Rules-based thinking is distinctive of the human thinking
process.
Rules in the function of civil governments are called law and
regulations. Two things come to mind: anti-trust and economics.
Newsweek in the November 23, 1998 article called "Case of the
Century?" examines a process of protecting free trade and
competition by government breakup of perceived monopolies.
Monopolies have been seen as problems before depressions (the
Mexican in 1994). The U.S. economic system is based on free
enterprise and capitalism. "Global Capitalism", an article in
the September 14, 1998 issue of Newsweek Magazine points out
that today's world is a lot more "global" and smaller in that
the economies of many countries affect the entire world
economy, as the article called "The Three Marketeers" in the
February 15, 1999 issue of Time Magazine points out.
Governments regulate economies through interest rates, tax
policy, and spending initiatives. These involve economic
theories (hypotheses) of how the economic system works. In the
Time article, there is an equation at the bottom of page 38
with variables of ASIA + RUSSIA + BRAZIL + ETC. Economic
science is not as simplistic as aesthetics or the value of
money; instead, it involves a manner of psychologies as the
article "Buy, Sell, or Sit Tight" in the September 14, 1998
issue of U.S. News and World Report points out.
All research starts with observation.
This is much like looking for clues in a puzzle or to a mystery
novel.
The January 11, 1999 edition of Time Magazine how Mary-Claire
King of Berkeley studied evidence on determining that gene 17
caused inherited breast cancer.
An article in the May 24, 1999 U.S. News and World Report
called "A Flip-flop for the ages" shows how observation is used
even by political scientists to change political hypotheses.
The article details the impact of public sentiment following
the Columbine High massacre on U.S. Republicans in switching
position is passing tougher gun registration laws.
An article called "Rewiring brain connections" in the August 3,
1998 issue of U.S. News and World notes that it has long been a
hypothesis that lack of dopamine produces Parkinson's disease,
where body movements are impaired. The article tells of new
experiments involving growing new neurons in Parkinson
patients. Observation will confirm the hypothesis that neurons
produce dopamine and that dopamine returns normal movement.
Observations in rats have been positive.
Are there similarity in findings? This
is a synthesis of all of the information with a systemic, causal
approach. It is not the hypothesis yet. It is looking for
connections.
One of the unique aspects of human thinking is in how certain
students are selected to certain schools. One student may have
better grades and yet not be selected for a particular job or
school, as the article "Inside The Admissions Game" in the
April 5, 1999 issue of Newsweek Magazine points out. Human
thinking injects other elements into the model for success,
probably by analyzing the characteristics of past graduates.
Things other than mere intelligence surface, changing the
hypothesis. Reflection takes the data of analysis and arrive at
a more accurate hypothesis of the "successful student."
Another practical forum is the hypothesis of the age of
driving, as in the article "Too Young To Drive" in the March 1,
1999 issue of Time Magazine, where data from crash sites
examines the variables of (1) age, (2) curfew (when teens
drive), and (3) numbers of passengers (effects of peer pressure
and distractions), and (4) adequacy of driving skills.
The article "How Foods Fight Cancer" found in the November 30,
1998 issue of Newsweek does not only mention certain foods that
prevent cancer, but describes the hypothetical models. For
instance, with tea and vitamin C which contain polyphenols,
these are antioxidants which neutralize free radical toxins in
cells. Rather than say that fish and flaxseed prevent cancer,
the article talks about the theory (hypothesis) that omega-6
fatty acids thwart tumor cell division. Rather than say the red
grapes prevent cancer, the article talks about cox-2 inhibitors
which inhibit new blood vessel formation, which is so needed
for tumor survival.
| Step 4: Form a
hypothesis |
Based on the synthesis from the pieces
of the analytical work, a guess is made of how the problem system
works. This is neither deductive nor inductive - yet.
In this step, we use the model hypothesis to work up what-if
scenarios. We answer how the system should respond based on our
model.
The January 11, 1999 issue of Time Magazine tells of genetic
engineering. Here's how the hypotheses work. Viruses use the
replication process to usually produce damage. Usually they
hook up to a cell's RNA and cause it to produce the proteins it
can use. However, when it comes to fixing genes, viruses can be
used for productive means. Viruses are easy to make and deliver
genes, which could be used to treat genetic defects in the
future.
An article called "What's Killing Clones?" in the May 24, 1999
issue of U.S. News and World Report tells of a cloning of a cow
from a single cell from an ear of an adult. The whole
experiment ignored implanting, which is a theory that neither
the maternal nor paternal genes can predominate in offspring.
When the reproduction comes from one single cell of one animal,
problems don't appear for 8 months. But at that time usually
genetic problems (such as anemia) manifest with usually death
following.
Another distinct aspect of human thinking is where to cut
ethical boundaries in what we do. Recent genetic engineering
involving DNA tricks have raised the question of "playing God,"
as the article "Designer Babies" found in the November 9, 1998
issue of Newsweek Magazine points out. On the one hand,
medicine and medical research would seek to provide corrections
the genetic damage to avoid the horrors of children suffering
with genetic birth defects. The issue is where does correction
cross the boundary to altering personality and other
non-medical type of experimentation in areas where we should
allow only God to experiment. There is now a three year project
to map 70,000 genes. With a base like this, the ethical issues
must be addressed. Ethic (proper behavior) is distinctive of
human thinking considerations.
The hypothesis is tested with a real
test and data is gathered on the system response. We call this
running experiments.
An article called "The First Americans" in the April 26, 1999
issue of Newsweek Magazine tells of the testing process used by
anthropologists known as archeology to modify hypotheses, in
this case, about native Americans. The article presents
evidence for challenging many traditional theories
(hypotheses). The article was duplicated in the article "A
fight over the origins of ancient bones" in the October 12,
1998 issue of U.S. News and World.
The article "Industry Foes Fume Over the Tobacco Deal" found in
the November 30, 1998 issue of U.S. News and World Report tells
of an interesting hypothesis that could not be tested before
litigation. The idea behind settlement money was that (1) it
would fund the medical costs for health damages due to smoking
that the states had to bear and (2) there would be huge
non-smoking ad campaigns to discourage teen smoking. Since the
litigation was in the federal arena, with monies going to the
states, the plan had no controls to assure objective
achievement. The trouble is that once the process is over, it
is impossible to go back an reengineer the design process. This
a classic example where the hypothesis was not pretested with
what-if scenarios. Back seat quarterbacking with hindsight
cannot always be applied.
| Step 6: Accept or
reject the hypothesis |
Based on the results, we can relate the
degree of certainty. We haven't discussed the statistical methods
yet, but it will be clear in the next few pages.
The May 18, 1998 Newsweek tells how Dr. Folkman of Boston's
Children's Hospital found that when cancerous tumors did not
have access to blood vessels, they died. By testing
angiostatin, an angiogenesis inhibitor, he found that tumors
died. Here's how it worked. When tumors grow, they attract more
blood vessels, a process called angiogenesis. These blood
vessels sprout and grow to provide the tumor with nourishment.
Usually the tumor releases new tumors to travel up these
vessels. Dr. Folkman's anti-angiogenic agents shut down this
blood vessel growth, causing the tumor to starve to death. His
experiments produced tumor dormancy in mice.
A good case of accepting or rejecting hypothesis comes from the
criminal science area and is described in the article "Biting
Back at the Wily Melissa" in the April 12, 1999 issue of
Newsweek, also reported in the April 12, 1999 issue of Time
called "How They Caught Him." The article linked
characteristics of David Smith to signatures in the Melissa
virus program. This was true "what-if" scenario of what would
be the character of someone fitting the profile.
One of the biggest challenges to hypothesis acceptance today is
in education's hypothesis that children's ethical and moral
modeling should not have a place in public education, because
such takes away valuable time from academics. However, in the
wake of recent "observations" and "reflections" on certain
serious social problems found in school shooting, etc., as the
article called "Character Goes Back to School" indicates, this
hypothesis needs to be rejected and the model modified. The new
hypothesis of appropriate education needs to incorporate (1)
trustworthiness, (2) respect, (3) responsibility, (4) fairness,
(5) caring, and (6) citizenship.
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