Scientific Method

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Hypothesis Testing Method

Step 1: Problem identification
Usually a problem that needs solving is causing difficulty or pain. One of the biggest problems we've recognized in recent years is AIDS. Once the problem is recognized, then an approach is designed. In other words, we might study it statistically, gathering data from hypotheses on how certain treatments affect victims, based on theories of how the virus works. At any rate, the problem is identified in this step and the approach is designed.
The positivists steered away from considering the study of emotional things as "non-scientific." These were too subjective for them. However, in recent times, social scientists have used sophisticated methods involving observation and statistical analysis to try to predict public opinion and the like.

One such use is in criminal science. The article "A Mountain Manhunt" in the July 27, 1998 article of Newsweek tells of a model or hypothesis of a fugitive. Cases put together to prosecute murders use courts to test the hypothesis against the evidence (observations) made. Some highly publicized wrongful convictions lately indicate that the science is not perfect. The article "The wrong men on death row" in the November 9, 1998 issue of U.S. News and World presents a whole litany of false confessions, discarded evidence, and wrongful convictions. The article tells how wrongful convictions happen. In March 15, 1999 U.S. News and World ran a follow-up article called "Fixing a broken frame" about Rolando Cruz who was wrongly imprisoned. The article raises questions about DNA testing. It is always difficult to prove murders since the prime witness is usually not still living. Criminal science and notions of right/wrong are definitely distinctive of human thinking (vs. animals). Our thinking is based on civil rules. Rules-based thinking is distinctive of the human thinking process.

Rules in the function of civil governments are called law and regulations. Two things come to mind: anti-trust and economics. Newsweek in the November 23, 1998 article called "Case of the Century?" examines a process of protecting free trade and competition by government breakup of perceived monopolies. Monopolies have been seen as problems before depressions (the Mexican in 1994). The U.S. economic system is based on free enterprise and capitalism. "Global Capitalism", an article in the September 14, 1998 issue of Newsweek Magazine points out that today's world is a lot more "global" and smaller in that the economies of many countries affect the entire world economy, as the article called "The Three Marketeers" in the February 15, 1999 issue of Time Magazine points out. Governments regulate economies through interest rates, tax policy, and spending initiatives. These involve economic theories (hypotheses) of how the economic system works. In the Time article, there is an equation at the bottom of page 38 with variables of ASIA + RUSSIA + BRAZIL + ETC. Economic science is not as simplistic as aesthetics or the value of money; instead, it involves a manner of psychologies as the article "Buy, Sell, or Sit Tight" in the September 14, 1998 issue of U.S. News and World Report points out.


Step 2: Observation
All research starts with observation. This is much like looking for clues in a puzzle or to a mystery novel.
The January 11, 1999 edition of Time Magazine how Mary-Claire King of Berkeley studied evidence on determining that gene 17 caused inherited breast cancer.

An article in the May 24, 1999 U.S. News and World Report called "A Flip-flop for the ages" shows how observation is used even by political scientists to change political hypotheses. The article details the impact of public sentiment following the Columbine High massacre on U.S. Republicans in switching position is passing tougher gun registration laws.

An article called "Rewiring brain connections" in the August 3, 1998 issue of U.S. News and World notes that it has long been a hypothesis that lack of dopamine produces Parkinson's disease, where body movements are impaired. The article tells of new experiments involving growing new neurons in Parkinson patients. Observation will confirm the hypothesis that neurons produce dopamine and that dopamine returns normal movement. Observations in rats have been positive.


Step 3: Reflection
Are there similarity in findings? This is a synthesis of all of the information with a systemic, causal approach. It is not the hypothesis yet. It is looking for connections.

One of the unique aspects of human thinking is in how certain students are selected to certain schools. One student may have better grades and yet not be selected for a particular job or school, as the article "Inside The Admissions Game" in the April 5, 1999 issue of Newsweek Magazine points out. Human thinking injects other elements into the model for success, probably by analyzing the characteristics of past graduates. Things other than mere intelligence surface, changing the hypothesis. Reflection takes the data of analysis and arrive at a more accurate hypothesis of the "successful student."

Another practical forum is the hypothesis of the age of driving, as in the article "Too Young To Drive" in the March 1, 1999 issue of Time Magazine, where data from crash sites examines the variables of (1) age, (2) curfew (when teens drive), and (3) numbers of passengers (effects of peer pressure and distractions), and (4) adequacy of driving skills.

The article "How Foods Fight Cancer" found in the November 30, 1998 issue of Newsweek does not only mention certain foods that prevent cancer, but describes the hypothetical models. For instance, with tea and vitamin C which contain polyphenols, these are antioxidants which neutralize free radical toxins in cells. Rather than say that fish and flaxseed prevent cancer, the article talks about the theory (hypothesis) that omega-6 fatty acids thwart tumor cell division. Rather than say the red grapes prevent cancer, the article talks about cox-2 inhibitors which inhibit new blood vessel formation, which is so needed for tumor survival.


Step 4: Form a hypothesis
Based on the synthesis from the pieces of the analytical work, a guess is made of how the problem system works. This is neither deductive nor inductive - yet.

In this step, we use the model hypothesis to work up what-if scenarios. We answer how the system should respond based on our model.
The January 11, 1999 issue of Time Magazine tells of genetic engineering. Here's how the hypotheses work. Viruses use the replication process to usually produce damage. Usually they hook up to a cell's RNA and cause it to produce the proteins it can use. However, when it comes to fixing genes, viruses can be used for productive means. Viruses are easy to make and deliver genes, which could be used to treat genetic defects in the future.

An article called "What's Killing Clones?" in the May 24, 1999 issue of U.S. News and World Report tells of a cloning of a cow from a single cell from an ear of an adult. The whole experiment ignored implanting, which is a theory that neither the maternal nor paternal genes can predominate in offspring. When the reproduction comes from one single cell of one animal, problems don't appear for 8 months. But at that time usually genetic problems (such as anemia) manifest with usually death following.

Another distinct aspect of human thinking is where to cut ethical boundaries in what we do. Recent genetic engineering involving DNA tricks have raised the question of "playing God," as the article "Designer Babies" found in the November 9, 1998 issue of Newsweek Magazine points out. On the one hand, medicine and medical research would seek to provide corrections the genetic damage to avoid the horrors of children suffering with genetic birth defects. The issue is where does correction cross the boundary to altering personality and other non-medical type of experimentation in areas where we should allow only God to experiment. There is now a three year project to map 70,000 genes. With a base like this, the ethical issues must be addressed. Ethic (proper behavior) is distinctive of human thinking considerations.


Step 5: Testing
The hypothesis is tested with a real test and data is gathered on the system response. We call this running experiments.

An article called "The First Americans" in the April 26, 1999 issue of Newsweek Magazine tells of the testing process used by anthropologists known as archeology to modify hypotheses, in this case, about native Americans. The article presents evidence for challenging many traditional theories (hypotheses). The article was duplicated in the article "A fight over the origins of ancient bones" in the October 12, 1998 issue of U.S. News and World.

The article "Industry Foes Fume Over the Tobacco Deal" found in the November 30, 1998 issue of U.S. News and World Report tells of an interesting hypothesis that could not be tested before litigation. The idea behind settlement money was that (1) it would fund the medical costs for health damages due to smoking that the states had to bear and (2) there would be huge non-smoking ad campaigns to discourage teen smoking. Since the litigation was in the federal arena, with monies going to the states, the plan had no controls to assure objective achievement. The trouble is that once the process is over, it is impossible to go back an reengineer the design process. This a classic example where the hypothesis was not pretested with what-if scenarios. Back seat quarterbacking with hindsight cannot always be applied.


Step 6: Accept or reject the hypothesis
Based on the results, we can relate the degree of certainty. We haven't discussed the statistical methods yet, but it will be clear in the next few pages.

The May 18, 1998 Newsweek tells how Dr. Folkman of Boston's Children's Hospital found that when cancerous tumors did not have access to blood vessels, they died. By testing angiostatin, an angiogenesis inhibitor, he found that tumors died. Here's how it worked. When tumors grow, they attract more blood vessels, a process called angiogenesis. These blood vessels sprout and grow to provide the tumor with nourishment. Usually the tumor releases new tumors to travel up these vessels. Dr. Folkman's anti-angiogenic agents shut down this blood vessel growth, causing the tumor to starve to death. His experiments produced tumor dormancy in mice.

A good case of accepting or rejecting hypothesis comes from the criminal science area and is described in the article "Biting Back at the Wily Melissa" in the April 12, 1999 issue of Newsweek, also reported in the April 12, 1999 issue of Time called "How They Caught Him." The article linked characteristics of David Smith to signatures in the Melissa virus program. This was true "what-if" scenario of what would be the character of someone fitting the profile.

One of the biggest challenges to hypothesis acceptance today is in education's hypothesis that children's ethical and moral modeling should not have a place in public education, because such takes away valuable time from academics. However, in the wake of recent "observations" and "reflections" on certain serious social problems found in school shooting, etc., as the article called "Character Goes Back to School" indicates, this hypothesis needs to be rejected and the model modified. The new hypothesis of appropriate education needs to incorporate (1) trustworthiness, (2) respect, (3) responsibility, (4) fairness, (5) caring, and (6) citizenship.



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