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The Phases of El Nino Early research of El Niņo suggested
that there was only one kind of El Niņo. It would start along the east coast of South
America when SST increased, and would propagate westward toward the central Pacific. This
was derived by averaging all of the past El Niņo events. However, averaging takes
away any indication of how and in which way each event was unique.
Though there are different types
of El Niņo events, they still evolve in the same way. Australian meteorologist Neville
Nicholls characterized the El Niņo process using these terms: a precursor phase,
an onset phase, growth and maturity, and decay. [Nicholls, 1987]. In
detail:

The phases of various recent El Ninos
- Precursor phase - This phase starts
with an intensification of the prevailing weather patterns. The high atmospheric pressure
in the eastern Pacific rises, with a corresponding fall in pressure in the west. The
easterly trade winds blow harder, pushing more surface water towards Indonesia, where the
sea level rises; and there is an corresponding drop in sea level off South America. With a
weakening of the surface westward-flowing winds, equatorial and coastal upwelling begins
to reduce, and SST in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific begin to warm up. This is
the transition phase, moving out of a cold event and toward a warm event of unknown
magnitude.
- Onset Phase - This occurs around
December most of the time. There is a seasonal slackening of the winds of the coast of
Peru and Ecuador. At that time, the upwelling of cold water along the coast slows down,
and surface water heats up, lasting until March or so. If that seasonal warming were to
continue into April or Mat, it is likely that the onset of a warm even of some magnitude
would be under way. However, the onsets of some El Niņo events [e.g. 1982-83] have
occurred later in the year [after August] , when the SST had already returned to normal in
April following the seasonal warming.
- Growth and maturity phase As the
months proceed, the SST in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become increasingly
warmer, and upwelling ceases to bring nutrient-rich cold ware into the sunlit zone of the
ocean surface. The sea level pressure in the South Pacific [near Tahiti] drops, and the
pressure at Darwin increases. With the weakening of the westward-flowing winds and the
strengthening of the eastward-flowing winds, the area covered by the warmed surface water
expands in the central and eastern Pacific. SST can increase from 1oC to 4oC
or more (as happened in 1982). The sea level in the western Pacific drops a few tens of
centimeters, while sea level in the eastern equatorial pacific increases.
- Decay phase This phase begins once
maximum SST have been reached in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and surface
temperature begin to respond to changes in wind speed and direction across the basin. The
thermocline begins to move in the opposite direction (once again becoming deeper in the
west and shallower in the east), and the warm water pool begins to thicken in the western
part of the basin. Westward flowing winds again begin to strengthen and eastward flowing
winds weaken. Coastal and equatorial upwelling begins to strengthen, bringing more cold,
deep water to the oceans surface. And the cycle (i.e. oscillation) begins once again
toward the onset of a cold phase.
A year and half after the onset,
the Pacific weather has returned to normal.

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