Frames Past El Ninos And Their Impact

Due to the magnitude of this El Niño, the phenomenon has been a common discussion of people. But there are some people who heard, or experienced the effects of previous El Niños. Chart of El Niños since 1925 provides information on when El Niños have occurred in the past, The 1982-1983 El Niño describes the former "big" El Niño, 1982-1983 El Niño facts describes some of its effects, and Differences between '82/83 and '97/98 El Niño is a preliminary comparison between this years El Niño and the 1982/83 El Niño.

Years of onset of strong or moderate El Niño (Warm Phase) events
1920's	1930's	1940's	1950's	1960's	1970's	1980's	1990's
1925	1939	1941	1951	1965	1972	1982	1991
1926			1953	1969	1976	1986	1994
1929			1957				1997
			1958

A year is defined as warm phase from October of that year to September of the next. For example, 1982 means a warm phase from October 1982 to September 1983.

Before the 1997-1998 El Niño, the 1982-1983 El Niño was most likely the worst El Niño in recorded history, and the strongest and most devastating of the century.

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"); write(""); } terms.document.close(); } // -->trade winds reversed, causing long lasting effects. For example, in 1994, 12 years later, a wave of warm water still survived from the 82-83 El Niño. Sea level began to rise in the mid-Pacific and by October, sea level increases of one foot could be seen from Ecuador to 6000 miles west! Surface temperatures rose from temperatures in the 70s to the low 80s.

This El Niño brought disasters to every continent. Australia, Africa and Indonesia all experienced dust storms, brush fires and droughts. Peru received the most rainfall every recorded in that country, up to 11 feet in some areas compared to the average 6 inches! Peruvian rivers were carrying on an average 1,000 times their normal flow. Overall, this El Niño is responsible for 1,500-2,000 deaths, along with more than $10 billion in damage world wide.

Secondary effects of El Niño were also felt. There were encephalitis outbreaks on the east coast of the US caused by increased numbers of mosquitoes, snakebites in Montana caused by a migration of the mice population, cases of bubonic plague in New Mexico due to an increase of flea-ridden rodents, and shark attacks off of Oregon due to warm sea temperatures.

Some scientists and meteorologists have attributed El Niño to record temperatures in Alaska and Northern Canada, which lead to a decrease of the salmon population. The east coast of the US experienced one of the warmest winters in 25 years.

December 24, 1982 - a tremendous blizzard hits eastern Colorado. Akron was buried under 28 inches of snow. Denver received 23.6 inches in 24 hours, setting a new record. Winds reached speeds of 60 mph, causing 4 to 8 foot snow drifts. Stapleton Airport was closed for 33 hours and most of the states roads were impassable.

December 27, 1982 - Louisiana's worst rainstorm finally comes to an end. More than 18 inches fell at Vinton, Louisiana in three days. Property damage was over $150 million, mostly due to widespread flooding.

January 21, 1983 - western Texas receives record snow falls. Almost 17 inches fell at Lubbock, TX, which broke a previous record for a single snow storm. Dalhart measured 15 inches and Plainview recorded 18.

February 11, 1983 - from Virginia to southern New England, a tremendous snow storm dropped over 3 feet of snow. New records were set in Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown, and Hartford. Some cities were recording over 5 inches of snow an hour, with wind gusts over 72 mph.

There are significant differences between this years El Niño and the 1982/83 El Niño. The first difference is solar cycle. In '82/83, we were coming off maximum numbers while this year, we are coming off numbers half of that in '82/83. This would put us inline for an El Niño more like '77/78 and '87/88, which were no where as powerful as '82/83. The second difference is the temperature of the Northern Atlantic waters. In '82/83, these waters were around 2^o to 4^o C below normal in the fall and winter. On the contrary, this years waters are about 4^o higher than the average. This would create an opposite of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The North Atlantic Oscillation follows the same principle as the Southern Oscillation (El Niño and La Niña or ENSO). In this case the oscillation goes from north to south, rather than east to west, in the Atlantic Ocean, rather than the Pacific. The low pressure in the Northern Atlantic (close to Iceland) switches with the highs experienced in the south. The high pressure moves to the north across the Northern Atlantic while the low pressure moves to the south near the Mediterranean entrance. When this high pressure moves north, cold air dams in North America, increasing the chances of cold and snow. This dam acts like a wall, deflecting the normal west to east progression of storms and cold air to the south. These blocks eventually move to eastern Canada causing storms more likely near the east coast.

With colder waters, as seen in '82/83, some of the cold air from the continent was drained, causing the winter to be warmer and less snowy. With the warmer waters currently experienced, this type of blocking is much more likely. Blocking in the North Atlantic would make this year snowier in the east, which is opposite of the pattern experienced in '82/83.

But this similarities and differences may be no indication on the type of El Niño that will be experienced. The intensity of this El Niño will most likely pass that of the '82/83 El Niño. Since El Niño study is relatively new, only time will tell how this El Niño effects the globe.