Frame El Nino Winter Forecast

This page provides a regional winter forecast for all of the United States. This page and forecast were created well in advance of the winter months - which for the purpose of this page, range from November to March. This forecast was created by an accredited meteorologist with the use of computers. A comparison can be found for several regions on the Winter Comparison page created by comparing historical winter data from the the past 30 years in temperature, precipitation, and snowfall to the events which transpired this winter. A picture of El Niño's possible effect on North America for the 1997-98 winter is in the bordering column.

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Picture of El Niño's effect on North America.

The Northeast - Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York(southern and eastern), New Jersey, and Pennsylvania(eastern)

In El Niño years, this region usually receives heavier snowfall than normal winters, but there is no clear cut pattern for temperature and rainfall.

There have been 7 El Niño winters since 1950 and in those years, Albany has had above average snowfall those all years. New York City, Boston, and Providence 6 of those 7 years. Burlington, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, and Atlantic City 5 of 7 years. There have also been very big snowstorms during these winters. These were scene in February 1958, January 1964, December 1969, January 1978, February 1983, February 1988, December 1992, and January 1993.

Precipitation and temperature have varied during these winters. In 3 years precipitation was above average, while in 4 years, precipitation was below average. Temperatures were above average in 4 winters, and below average in 3 winters.

Final Prediction: Numerous near misses of snowstorm, but possibly one or two big snows storms. If North Atlantic blocking continues then temperatures will be below average, but expect period warm-ups.

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This area of the country is a little more difficult to predict. This is because for half the El Niño winters, this region has experienced increased snow amounts and below average temperatures. For the other half, they were drier than usual and had above average temperatures. The variation is caused by the amount of warm Pacific air that makes it to this part of the continent. The more cold air that is able to build over, the greater the intensity of lake effect snow (1969/70, 1977/78). When warm air floods Canada, then snow production is much more limited (1982/1983).

The 1982/83 El Niño caused this region to experience a warmer and dryer winter then usual, but there are many differences between this years El Niño and the El Niño of '82/83. The 1977/78 and 1987/88 El Niño winters, which the current one has some similarities with, were colder and snowier.

Final Prediction: With the similarities between this El Niño and the '77/78 and '87/88, temperatures should be around normal, with precipitation and snowfall either near or above average. But this region will probably experience both warm and cold spells, with both snowy and dry periods.

El Niño winters in this region usually lead to colder than normal temperatures and wetter than normal precipitation. The region had below average temperatures 5 of 7 winters, and above average precipitation 6 of 7 winters.

This region also experienced some big snowstorms. Washington and Baltimore received above normal snowfall 5 of the 7 winters, and in mountain regions, 7 of 7 winters.

Final Prediction: The region will be relatively wet with above average snowfall, with possibly a big storm. Temperatures should be below average.

This region has experienced below average temperatures and precipitation in most El Niño winters. There is a tendency for more wetness along the coast. This is due to coastal storms developing off the mid or south Atlantic coast. The Southern Appalachians, and inland areas are more susceptible to ice or snow storms.

In 6 of the past 7 winters, temperatures for this region were below average and 5 of 7 had below average precipitation. El Niño's impact will most likely be felt in the late winter or spring when a strong southern jet stream can bring more sever weather.

Final Prediction: Winter in this region will most likely be dry and cool, with a possible snow or ice threat.

This region has experienced above average precipitation and temperature in 6 of the 7 El Niño winters. This is caused by disturbances from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico that bring heavy rains and unseasonable severe weather.

Final Prediction: This should be a wet and stormy winter and spring. Possibly some severe weather events.

El Niño's effect for this region will mostly likely depend on location. Some winters have been wet, while others dry. This is also unevenly distributed, with the Gulf having a tendency to be wet, while the northern area being dry. Temperatures have generally been average to slightly below average during an El Niño.

During the '82/83 El Niño, this region was wetter than other years. Like the Southeast, this regions greatest impact probably will be felt during late winter or spring when the jet stream can bring more severe weather.

Final Prediction: This area will probably experience average temperatures with slightly below average precipitation. Also, the interior could experience an ice or snow storm if there is enough cold air.

This region has been cooler and drier than normal in most El Niño winters. Snowfall has been above average in Cincinnati, Louisville, Chicago and Cleveland the past 5 of 7 winters.

Final Prediction: This region will most likely have below average temperature and precipitation, with the possibility of above average snowfall.

This region has tended to have below average precipitation and above average temperatures in most El Niño winters. Although, the '69/70, '77/78, and '87/88 El Niño's were both cold and snowy. In 4 of the 7 winters, Madison and Detroit both experienced above average snowfalls.

The severity of the winter will ultimately depend on the amount of warm Pacific air. When the Pacific lows are strong, which allows Pacific air to flood Canada, as seen in '82/83, the amount of snow production decreases. If cold air is able to drop south, then snowfalls will be heavy.

Final Prediction: The region will probably experience both warm and cold spells, with snowy periods in-between. El Niño's with the most similarity to this one, '77/78, '87/88, created cold and snowy winters, compared to '82/83 with average temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall.

El Niño will probably provide relief to this region. El Niño winters compare to be warmer and drier, compared to the past two winters which had heavy snows and cold temperatures.

Final Prediction: The forecast is likely to be near or above average temperatures, with below average precipitation. Snowfall will be below average, even with heavy spring blizzards that have been observed in the past few El Niños.

This area is in-between warm, dry conditions to the north and cool and wet weather to the sound in El Niño years. Warmth and dryness tends to prevail in the northern and western parts of this region, while the southeast tends to be cooler and wetter.

In '77/78, the eastern parts of this region were cold, while in '92/93, the western section was cold.

Final Prediction: Temperatures will likely be average to above average and precipitation to be average to below average in the northwest, while in the southeast, precipitation will be slightly above average.

El Niño winters are almost always wet in this region, leading to below average temperatures due to the clouds and rain. The intensity of the precipitation will depend on the strength of the jet stream. If a northern jet stream dominates ('77/78), then the region receives less rain compared to a more southerly dominated jet stream ('82/83).

Final prediction: This region will likely be wet and cool, including some powerful storms with sever weather during the end of winter and early spring. Mostly likely, a southerly jet stream will dominate due to very warm waters off the eastern Pacific.

This region usually experiences warmer than normal temperatures and below average snowfall, with precipitation being the most variable. An active northern jet stream can cause precipitation to vary to above average levels, resulting in heavy mountain snows.

During the '77/78 El Niño, there was a more mild flow of Pacific air, resulting in above average precipitation for that winter. It was also above average during the '57/58 and '82/83 El Niños.

Final Predictions: With the big El Niño all creating above average precipitation, this year will likely follow this pattern. Temperatures will also be above average.

Temperatures tend to be above average in El Niño winters. Precipitation will depend on the strength of the northern and southern jet stream. With a strong southern, which is likely this year, the area will have above average precipitation, with above average snowfall in the mountain areas.

Final Prediction: This region will experience both above average temperatures and precipitation, with the heaviest precipitation over the south.

This area has been divided split between dry and wet El Niño winters. Like the Southern Plains, Central and Southern Rockies, precipitation will depend on a southern jet stream. An active one will cause this region to experience heavy rains. It could even help Nevada get wetness.

Final Prediction: With this strong El Niño, the region will have above average precipitation this winter.

El Niño years are almost always warmer than normal. This is due to the warmer than normal ocean waters. But, not all El Niño years are wet, and the amount of wetness varies. Both the California and Washington coast, 5 of the 7 El Niño years have been wetter than normal. With a very powerful El Niño, this only will create wetter and milder weather

Final Prediction: This year will be both mild and wet. The strong Pacific low should bring heavy rain and wind to the north and a southern jet stream should bring tropical heat and moisture to the south. Also, there will be an increase of mountain snow.

Alaska tends to be warmer during El Niño winters. It also is wetter along the Gulf of Alaska but drier inland and in the east. Hawaii is usually drier and cooler during an El Niño year. The state gets most of their rain form the trade winds rising up the mountain slopes, but with weaker trades, they will receive less rainfall. But with warm eastern Pacific waters, Hawaii is more vulnerable to out of season tropical systems and feed on this water and travel off-course.

Final Prediction: Alaska will have above average temperatures, with precipitation varying upon location. Hawaii on the other hand will be drier and cooler then usually. There is also a possibility of an out of season storm system.

The Northeast	Eastern Great Lakes	Mid-Atlantic States	Southeast
Florida	Mid-South	Ohio Valley	Western Great Lakes
Northern Plains	Central Plains	Southern Plains	Northern Rockies
Central and Southern Rockies	Southwest	West Coast	Alaska and Hawaii