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". . . I never expected Cory to be candidate. Butz was the Aquino whose name came up as a possible candidate, not Cory. The Convenor Group came up with a list: Jose Diokno, Jovito Salonga, Eva Kalaw, and Doy Laurel . . ."

Francisco "Soc" Rodrigo
Opposition Leader

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home > the spirit > what if edsa didn't happen?

To this day, the millions of Filipinos around the archipelago celebrate yearly the EDSA revolution. Though society is not yet rid of harmful elements, the people have attained the very gist of democracy and freedom through the event of 1986.

One question remains unanswered. What if there had been no EDSA revolution?

Before the revolution, three major factors would have affected the state of the nation had there been no EDSA. First, the President, Ferdinand Marcos, was suffering from a serious kidney disorder. Sooner or later, he would have died. Futhermore, the President was at the time, attempting to secure loans from the International Monetary Fund. In fact, the whole reason why Marcos called for the snap elections was to show the IMF authorities that the people still had faith in his government, thus legitimizing the said loan. Finally, the strongest voice of opposition against tyranny, then-Senator Benigno Aquino, had been assassinated.

thespirit.article5.image1.jpg (17447 bytes)The key to the EDSA revolution was the voice of Aquino's wife, Cory. If she had remained silent on her controversial defeat during the snap elections, there would probably have been no EDSA. The status quo would have remained. Marcos would then borrow more money from the international community, thus further increasing the already staggering amount of foreign debt. Marcos would continue to usurp the taxes for himself and his cronies' personal interests. Progress would come at an increasingly slow pace....the Filipino's plight would be left unheard.

A probable occurrence following this would be at the time of his death. His Vice-President, Arturo Tolentino, would have taken over. However, the parties exerting control over the government would be the ones who would really run the show. After all, in the real chain of command, it was these men who came in second to Marcos, if not at par with his level of power. Realistically speaking though, they would have lost a powerful figure in Marcos and not all of these parties would agree to Tolentino's take-over. The political parties would be split indefinitely with some factions loyal to Tolentino, and some factions supporting his ouster.

Then of course, there would be Marcos' children. They would inherit their departed father's wealth, and be among if not the most prominent in the industrial scene of the Philippines, wielding immense influence in the political arena. Of course, looming behind the entire circle would be the shadow of their mother, Imelda, the person many believe played an integral role in the establishment of the Marcos dynasty.

thespirit.article5.image2.jpg (21870 bytes)As a result of the separation of the Marcos family and their associates, an inevitable power struggle would ensue. For the remainder of Marcos' term, there would be nothing short of a full collapse of the Philippine economy. The leading businessmen would spend their time sequestering rival companies. With Tolentino being only a puppet authority figure, those who should have been working to sustain the policies that Marcos instituted would be concentrating solely on their own personal gain.

In the Legislative government branch, Marcos' supporters would be too preoccupied with trying to obtain some semblance of order between the Marcoses and their former allies that there would be no significant change in the structure of the law. For the next years until the election, the Filipinos would be unwilling witnesses to a pitiful game of political cat-and-mouse. Either way, the opposition against Marcos would have had an opportunity to rally every citizen behind them to create a militia against pro-Marcos groups. A result would probably be nothing short of a full civil war costing the lives of millions of innocent Filipinos

EDSA was the event that triggered a whole change in the system of government, thus bringing an end to nearly twenty years of tyrannical rule. If EDSA had not taken place, how much longer would the Filipino people be able to tolerate the injustices being done to them. And if the peaceful means was not chosen, at what cost would freedom be achieved?

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