The Cycle of an Epidemic


An epidemic hits a population, runs its course, and dies out. It disappears either because of a cure, or everyone without immunity dies. In this way pockets of population have disappeared again and again throughout history. Diseases come into existence, change, and vanish. And some have always been with us. Most diseases are the result of change in our environment, behavior, or both. AIDS has been hastened by promiscuous sexual practices and a global transportation system. This increase of travel has brought about the transmission of many diseases from one continent to another, even centuries ago. Ships hastened the spread of Black Death, bubonic plague and smallpox, and airplanes have hastened the spread of newer diseases. Increasingly dense masses of humanity have made a rich target for the fast spread of disease, leaving sparse population in its wake. And thus the cycle has continued.

Medicine in History

From the time of Hippocrates, the “Father of medicine” in the 400’s BC, people believed that the body had four liquids or humors that must be in correct balance to maintain good health. They were: 

one blood (from the heart), likened to the basic element air
two phlegm (from the brain), likened to water
three yellow bile (from the liver), likened to fire
four black bile (from the spleen), likened to the earth

For over 1000 years these beliefs were held, and a doctor's job was to keep the proper balance. Thus, if a person was hot with fever, they believed the heat around the body resulted from a problem with 1 (since the heat was in the air), and they tried to rid the body of what was believed to be excess blood. This practice of blood-letting the victims was common, and usually resulted in an even more weakened state in the victim. This time of 1000 or more years saw little advancement in the field of medicine. Much of the people’s lives came under the influence of the church, and the belief was that these diseases were the “will of God” and shouldn’t be messed with. So there was little questioning and no research into causes or cures. It was during the Renaissance that advancements started to be made, and then with the advent of the printing press, medical information was published and circulated.

 

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"Most disease is the result of change in our enviroment, behavior, or both.".

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By the early 1900’s it seemed as if we had conquered the microbe with our emphasis on fitness, research and cleanliness. Then polio appeared in the advanced nations where exposure and immunity weren’t built up. It seemed to avoid the under-privileged countries, where there was immunity to disease as a result of more exposure to microorganisms.

Where epidemics in the past came about as the environment degraded, the trend seems to have changed. Lyme disease sprouted up in a “recovering” environment. The tics that were found to carry the disease are carried by deer that inhabit suburban areas and second-growth forests. Legionnaires disease was found in a protected environment of air conditioning and hot-water systems. AIDS has spread through advancements such as hypodermics, blood transfusions, tissue transplants, and changes in sexual behavior.

New epidemics come into existence, change, and vanish. Most disease is the result of change in our environment, behavior, or both. 

  

Sparks
High population density
Newly inhabited areas
Increased travel
New generation without immunity
Mutation in microbe
Over use of antibiotics
Poverty / poor sanitation or hygeine
Change in human activity
  • Change in eating habits
  • Substance abuse
  • Change in sexual habits

 

 

   

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Water 
Observe and define symptoms
Isolate victims
Identify microbe
Identify carriers
Identify mode of transportation
Implement preventative measures
Implement cure
Worldwide disease surveilance and communication

 

  In many ways the cycle of an epidemic is like a fire. Our population is the kindling, waiting to burn. One spark starts the fire. Steps are taken to put it out. In red are the "sparks" that start an epidemic. In blue are the steps to quenching the "flames."