Disease
When discussing TEOTWAWKI and disease, some of you might ask, "What kind of disease could possibly cause society-wide or world-wide devastation? "
To answer this question, we must first consider diseases in general. For the purposes of this article, diseases are defined as
abnormal conditions of the human body that are caused by
infectious agents such as the smallpox virus (which causes the smallpox disease) and the polio virus (which causes the polio disease). Whether a disease can cause TEOTWAWKI is dependent on two factors, namely its communicability (that is, its
contagiousness or
infectiousness) and its effect on the victim.
- Communicability
This attribute is used to describe the speed at which a disease is transmitted. For example, someone standing beside a flu patient for several hours will almost definitely catch flu as flu is very contagious. Meanwhile, someone standing beside a cancer patient will not be inflicted with cancer, regardless of how long they stay together. This is because cancer is not contagious. (Do note that cancer is used as an example to illustrate "communicability", but is not a disease under our definition)
- Effect
Diseases can have various different effects, ranging from painless spots or blemishes to discomfort to paralysis, and even to death. For example, smallpox kills 35% of its victims, while whitepox only kills around 1%[1]. Also to be taken into consideration is the rapidity of the effect- how long it takes for the effect to take place. Some diseases remain dormant in the body for a few weeks, while others rapidly bring death.
For a genuine TEOTWAWKI-causing disease, both these attributes must be present to a high degree. Move on to our Case Study, where we document one such devastating disease- the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918, which killed
more people than both the World Wars combined.[2]
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Sources:
(1) http://www.afip.org/Departments/infectious/sp/text/1_1.htm
(2) http://archives.cbc.ca/health/disease/clips/1965-12705/
CASE STUDY[1]
Description
Influenza is a virus which is transmitted by breathing in infected air. While the flu circles the globe every year, causing fevers, aching muscles, headaches and tiredness
[2]. Sometimes, the virus mutates, that is, changes its characteristics. One such mutant virus was the Spanish flu virus, which took millions of lives.
Story >>
In 1918, a flu outbreak (a disease that affected a very large area with an unexpected impact) surfaced, starting in the United States. It started as a minor fever that swept around the world, infecting about a quarter of the people.
It appeared to be an ordinary flu, except that it infected mostly young adults who were healthy and strong. (usually the old or the unhealthy are more susceptible to the virus) For three days, many young workers and soldiers were bed-ridden and many were inconvenienced either directly or indirectly. However, given that most people were more concerned with the war, the flu outbreak was soon forgotten after the ill recovered.
Less than half a year later, though, the flu resurfaced. Appearing first in the United States, it spread to west Africa and France, and then to every other continent on earth within 8 months. One-tenth of the population were infected and experienced mild symptoms, but another significant four-tenths were ravaged by conditions that killed up to one out of five of them (as compared to the usual flu epidemic, which killed one out of a thousand infected). In some villages or communities, the entire population were wiped out. As the initial wave was thought to begin in Spain, many began calling it the Spanish Flu, or the Spanish Lady. To "Dance with the Spanish Lady" was a phrase used to describe being infected by the disease. It was in this way that the deadly Spanish Flu emerged out of nowhere. No one who knew how to stop it.
Infection >>
As a form of influenza, the Spanish flu virus had symptoms similar to that of regular flu in mild cases. First, the infected person would begin to cough and a blocked and stuffy nose. Then, they would start to ache painfully at the joints, and burn with a fever of up to 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). They would then feel very fatigued and exhausted- many were observed to want to stay in bed. Sometimes a blue facial tint was observed.
These symptoms developed with extraordinary speed- Within hours, some victims could be too weak to walk.
At this point, some lucky patients would recover after a week of torment, but many others died quickly in as little as a day from various conditions. One particularly gruesome condition was pneumonia. A patient would experience bleeding in his lungs and then quickly drown in his own body fluids when it filled his lungs. In rarer and less rapid cases, the virus attacked the brain's neurons, leading to mental disorder. Finally, of course, many others died indirectly due to starvation and chaos caused by the disease's circulation in society.
General Effect On Society >>
While there were towns where many died, in some places only a very small percentage were infected. Even in these places, however, the societal impact of the disease was tremendous. To prevent spreading of disease, mass transport, public places, and many shops had to be closed or restricted. With regards to work, so many were struck by incredible exhaustion (even if they did not die) that many tasks had to be put on hold. This was particularly true for health workers and even gravediggers, whereby both were unable to carry out their duties, leading to a lack of medical care and a need for mechanically-dug mass graves respectively. In this way, TEOTWAWKI was brought about, as life and lifestyle were broken apart and the world was literally and radically changed for many people living in devastated communities, whether by the loss of many loved ones or by the economic and social breakdown.
On the other hand, many locales were able to prevent the disease from killing too many. A good example is Japan, which prevented travel to and from its islands, effectively preventing the disease's spread. Only 0.425% of Japan's population died, as compared to nearly 3% in India.
External Factor- The War >>
There were some factors that caused the pandemic to spread as quickly as it did. Firstly, the international maritime (sea) transport at that time was at its peak. This was because soldiers and supplies had to be transported to the frontlines quickly. As such, wounded soldiers infected with the disease brought the virus back to their loved ones. A important point to note as well is the fact that soldiers were often between the ages of 15-35, thus falling neatly into the age group which was hit hardest by the pandemic.
Conclusion >>
In all, the flu pandemic ended on June 1920, more than 2 years after the first wave on March 1918. In total, an estimated 50 to 100 million died worldwide. Every well-populated place had been damaged to some extent with the
sole exception of the island of Marajó in Brazil, in which there were no documented cases
[1]. This incident left the world in fear of another even more devastating pandemic.
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Sources:
(1) http://www.bytown.net/flu1918.htm
(2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza
LEARN MORE
Below is the World Health Organisation's global influenza preparedness plan. It effectively defines the 3 stages of pandemic influenza.
[1]
"Interpandemic period:
Phase 1: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans.
Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans, but an animal variant threatens human disease.
Pandemic alert period:
Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype but no human-to-human spread.
Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited localized human-to-human transmission
Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized.
Pandemic period:
Phase 6: Increased and sustained transmission in general population."
While we currently not at Stage 2 or Stage 3, pandemics are still very relevant to our society as a whole, given that they are all potentially
TEOTWAWKI material and every form of society as we know it has a possible (or even on-going) pandemic. For example, the developed world faces the threat of diseases such as Tuberculosis and other contagious diseases. This is because of the rise of substance abuse as well as drugs which weaken a person's immune system (immunosuppressive drugs). Another problem the developed world has to face with regards to disease is the problem of resistance- as antibiotics and medicine are very often used in developed places, the viruses and contagious agents in these places often develop resistance or immunity to these cures, forcing medical scientists to be vigilant at all times, as well as forcing them to consider the possibility of a supervirus which is resistant to all or many types of medicine.
From the viewpoint of the less developed countries, disease is also a massive threat. Almost one-in-four people in some parts of Africa have HIV/AIDs due to unsafe sexual practices
[2]. Lack of good medicinal programmes and available cures also is a cause for worry to these countries.
Additionally, another point to note is that terrorists may take the opportunity to sow fear amongst us by using these very diseases. Anthrax, a deadly disease with an infecting agent that could survive dormant for very long periods in the form of spores, is an example of a biological threat that terrorists can use. Around year 2004 to 2005 almost four thousand test kits containing the 1957 Asian Flu virus were circulated around the globe
[3]. Were a terrorist to obtain them and use them, the consequences would be terrible.
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Sources:
(1) http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/
(2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#HIV_infection
(3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Flu#test_kits
DON'T WORRY!
Still, although disease may appear to be an almost unsurmountable threat, there are many safeguards already in place that may soften its impact. Governments around the world as well as the World Health Organisation
are aware of the threat disease represents, and as many of you know, many of the brightest minds around you now will take jobs as doctors or specialists when they become adults. With widespread and thorough preparation, disasters caused by diseases
can be averted.
For example, the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) incident, in which a very contagious form of pneumonia threatened to become a pandemic, the government and WHO were able to prevent its spread. They did this mostly through restricting of mass gatherings (such as conventions or popular shopping areas) as well as carefully screening people travelling through the airport and sea ports. All those in contact with infected people were examined or quarantined, and needless to say those infected were carefully isolated to prevent its spread. The SARS outbreak was ended before it became a pandemic.
Furthermore, as the world develops, vaccines and cures are developed which can stave off diseases. For example, in many developed countries, young school children are given a wide range of vaccines
[1], allowing them to gain immunity to various otherwise-deadly diseases.
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Sources:
(1) http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss4909a2.htm
OUR PART TO PLAY
As can be seen by the case study of the Spanish Flu Pandemic, disease is a potentially devastating threat that is relevant to us all. In order to both prevent and aid in the situation, it is important to remember a few key points:
- In times of strife and trouble, be especially wary of disease because the population is especially vulnerable due to lowered immunity and worsened health conditions. Cramped and unsanitory conditions (such as makeshift mass transport) should be avoided.
- Once unwell, stay out of contact with others. Be sanitary- don't sneeze at others! Visit the doctor quickly so that he can identify your illness and treat it before you spread it.
- Be alert- if you notice your family members or acquaintances looking unwell, do bring them to a doctor. This can both save them from some suffering and can also ensure that the rest of your family is not put at risk.
- Stay healthy! Regular exercise, a balanced diet, and adherence to the above points will naturally improve your resistance to diseases. If everyone were to do the same, you can be sure that pandemics would occur less often.
- Finally, do try to comply with health and safety regulations set down by your parents, the WHO, or your country in times of crisis. Learn of the importance of the various rules. Quarantine orders as well as safety regulations will protect you better if you comply with them. Do not forget to share your knowledge with your friends so that they can act in the same way!
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