The Global Warming
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Introduction
The global warming it is the greatest controversy for all time, because it affects all the inhabitants of our planet, without distinction. And, as well, diverse groups use it to have a cause by which to fight. Some documentary explains some things; other documentary says something that contradicts to the other, global warming is always a controversy. But today it is possible to be agreed in something; the man is influencing in the climatic change and therefore in certain form in the global warming.
The climatic change and the global warming was not the same? top
A serious error that is committed is to think that the climatic change and the global warming are the same, since the truth is that they are no the same. When we spoke of the climatic change we are saying that the Earth climate is changing, but we did not specify if it is warmed up, if it is cools off, if it is put rainier or dry. Nevertheless, when we talk about "global warming", we say that the climate changes, warming up.
The Theory top
Who create and stand the theory of the global warming says that thanks to greenhouse gases the temperature will increase gradually. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) created by the United Nations says that the temperatures will be able to get to raise in from 1,1 degrees to 6,4 degrees Celsius compared with the temperature average of the 1900 in the year 2100. These predictions are done on the basis of different models taking into account the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The main problem is that it is very difficult to determine if a specific event is related to the global warming, by its high possibility of having other causes. This makes very difficult the investigation of scientists; who try to predict the possible consequences of global warming.
The Kyoto Protocol top
One of the greater challenges of the global warming is to be prepared, and that is obtained with prevention. Many countries have signed the Kioto protocol, which impels to diminish the dioxide emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. It was ratified by almost all the countries that belong to the UN, with the exception of the United States and of Australia , both great CO2 emitters. Their opinion of the Protocol is that is very expensive, and it focus only on reduce the CO2 emission of developed countries, but other great polluting countries, like China and India, are not considered like "developed countries"; by its high index of poverty. They do not have a very high reduction goal. The other factor of reflection is the economic one, since to lower the CO2 production it is necessary to invest in clean industries, higher taxes for the polluting companies and another series of actions, which could stop the economic progress. But there is a great dilemma here: there are some who they indicate that the effects of the global heating can reduce the world-wide growth in a 20%, when the procedures to reduce the CO2 would only affect it in a 1% the growth.
Detractors top
We must indicate that more than 20 scientific societies support that the global temperatures of the Earth are in increase, including the ones that are in countries of the G8, the most powerful and rich countries of the world, who the global warming could affect its economy. However there are varied organizations against the theory of the global warming, as the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, among others. It is necessary to emphasize that inside of most of the detractive organizations there are not many dedicated scientists to study the climate. Another group against to the theory usually is the one of the economists. Great amount of them publishes books justifying their reasons, climatic and economic, of because the global warming it is a lie, or, in a friendly way, is incorrect. From all of this we can deduce that the scientists who dedicate themselves to study the climate globally and even in local scale have determined that the Earth is becoming more and more hot.
Validate of the Predictions top
Many people think that as the meteorologists of their city cannot know with certainty if it's going to rain in five days, how the scientists can determine that the climate is going to warm up in one hundred years; than the level of the water is going to rise and another series of consequences. The answer to this is that when trying to know the climate that comes the next week can be very variable and specific, as if a runner had the certainty that he is going to win the following race, which is very difficult, but he can know in general, because he knows if he trained, if he did not eat fast-food and another series of factors. He could not win the first place, but obtains seconds and third places in the competitions. The same happens to the predictions of the climatic change. There are many factors that they indicate to us that the climate is changing with respect to one hundred years ago; as the high CO2 indices in the atmosphere.
Another debate is centered in the computational models that are used to make the studies and conclusions; they have never been proven to verify their validity. But Svante Arrhenius predicted more that 100 years ago that the CO2 would increase the temperatures of the Earth, which has happened. Several other predictions, done from statistical data, non-esoteric, have been truth, because the surface of the sea is being warmed up, which has verified thanks to the climatic satellites that measure the globe temperatures constantly. Whenever a scientist makes an investigation it must be fitted into the scientific method.
Volcanic activity top
Some people attribute the climatic change to the volcanic activity, since an eruption emits many CO2. This thesis would be in correct if a volcanic eruption increased CO2 in the graphs, which never has happened: the CO2 is increasing constantly, without bumps, which is deduced of a gradual increase of the human activity.
Sources
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambio_clim%C3%A1tico
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change