On 28 January 2005, some students at Naples American Elementary School visited the Vesuvius Observatory and interviewed Professor Macedinio Giovanni, an Associate Professor at the Vesuvius Observatory in Naples, Italy. Since Dr. Giovanni did not speak English, we had to rely on an interpreter and information from his publications. Students asked the following questions (since we live in Italy, we left the Italian captions in the pictures on this page):
1. When did you decide to study the science of volcanos?
Dr. Giovanni: I first became interested in volcanoes when my parents took me on a vacation to Sicily when I was about 6 years old. We drove passed Mount Etna and they took me to the park where I was able to see the lava flows. That image left an indelible impression on me that is with me to this day. After graduating from high school I studied Geo-Physics at the University of Urbino here in Italy, and then began working for the observatory here in Naples.
2. What is the study of Volcano Physics?
Dr. Giovanni: During the last decade, the field of volcanology has been rapidly evolving from an empirical to a more quantitative science, and interest in physical volcanology has been growing as this discipline has better defined its methods and objectives. A fundamental objective of physical volcanology is to describe in detail all the processes occurring in a shallow magma chamber and driving the transport of magma to the surface, along with the processes underlying eruption dynamics. A critical component of such processes is the interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems, both by direct contact and via heat exchange between those systems. The specific purpose of modern physical volcanology should be to develop physical models of these processes and to track their spatio-temporal evolution based on geophysical and geochemical observations. Within this framework, seismology, geodesy, geochemistry, thermodynamics, and quantitative volcanology together constitute a multidisciplinary approach aimed at understanding and modelling the complex dynamics of volcanoes. The same multidisciplinary approach must also be applied to the study of volcanic processes within the larger geodynamic framework of regional structural features and stress fields. Not only must modern physical volcanology must rely on the most advanced seismological, geodetic and geochemical methods to quantify source processes and structures, but it also must develop and improve existing and new technologies and methods for accurate in situ and remote monitoring of volcanic activity. Volcano physics is meant to start from the recent developments in the field of physical volcanology and to go further, towards a more strict link with physical methodologies, monitoring techniques, planning of experiments and physical interpretation of volcanic phenomena. It also attempts to establish clear links between geophysical and geochemical observations, which are generally considered separately and are not well integrated in volcanological models. It is further aimed to cover a wide range of studies focused both on more classical mechanical modelling of volcanic activity, and on the interaction between mechanical and thermalfluid-dynamical effects. Also involved are studies of volcanic activity within a regional framework, tectonic-volcanic interaction, as well as novel techniques in volcano monitoring.
3. What research are you currently working on?
Dr. Giovanni: We are currently working on fluid dynamics of eruptive processes of pyroclastic currents. In other words, the study of pyroclastic flows and the dynamics of how they flow from the volcano through the eruptive pressure. It is important to know how this works so we can insure that the people who live on and around Mount Vesuvius can be educated and warned if there are possible pyroclastic flows following an eruption. We also use computer models to help us determine where they may take place on the mountain. We are heavily involved in making eruptive scenario models that can be used by the government here.
4. Do scientists know when Vesuvius will erupt again?
Dr. Giovanni: We have found that gases building up beneath the mountain are setting the stage for a much more violent eruption than the Plinian eruption of 79 A.D.. As the ground gets hotter from volcanic activity, it swells, compressing the gases that fill up the cracks. We recognized that sources of ultrasound emissions that we had measured on a lava outcrop revealed a 3D distribution of hot fluids diffusing into pores underground. There are recent indications from gas-emitting vents in Vesuvius's crater, that a large, hot magma chamber lies below the mountain. And micro-earthquakes indicate that the magma is beginning to move about. Although there is no indication that an eruption is imminent, the Italian government is working on evacuation plans for some 650,000 people who live in "death zones" surrounding the volcano. There is a huge amount of available magma under Vesuvius. It was really unexpected for the reservoir to be that size, so very wide and large. It underlies a very large area under the Neopolitan volcanoes. Although Mt. Vesuvius’s next eruption will probably be explosive, coming on the heels of a long quiet period, we don't expect the magma reservoir to be drained. Most of us believe that no more than 20 to 25 percent of available magma is released during any eruption. If the eruption cycles we have identified do not break down, we can predict that one can expect a sub-Plinian eruption to occur sometime between A.D. 2015-2029.
